Publications
Missing experimental data and rate parameter inference for H2+OH=H2O+H
The reaction of OH with H2 is a crucial chain-propagating step in the H2-O2 system thus making the specification of its rate, and its uncertainty, important for predicting the high-temperature combustion of hydrocarbons. In order to obtain an uncertain representation of this reaction rate in the absence of actual experimental data, we perform an inference procedure employing maximum entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods to discover hypothetical data from a target shock-tube experiment designed to measure the reverse reaction rate. This method attempts to invert the fitting procedure from noisy measurement data to parameters, with associated uncertainty specifications, to arrive at candidate noisy data sets consistent with these reported parameters and their uncertainties. The uncertainty structure of the Arrhenius parameters is obtained by fitting each hypothetical data set in a Bayesian framework and pooling the resulting joint parameter posterior densities to arrive at a consensus density. We highlight the advantages of working with a data-centric representation of the experimental uncertainty with regards to model choice and consistency, and the ability for combining experimental evidence from multiple sources. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of knowledge of the joint Arrhenius parameter density for performing predictive modeling of combustion systems of interest.