Publications

Experimental wargames to address the complexity-scarcity GAP

Lakkaraju, Kiran L.; Reinhardt, Jason C.; Letchford, Joshua L.; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Goldblum, Bethany L.; Reddie, Andrew W.

National security decisions are driven by complex, interconnected contextual, individual, and strategic variables. Modeling and simulation tools are often used to identify relevant patterns, which can then be shaped through policy remedies. In the paper to follow, however, we argue that models of these scenarios may be prone to the complexity-scarcity gap, in which relevant scenarios are too complex to model from first principles and data from historical scenarios are too sparse-making it difficult to draw representative conclusions. The result are models that are either too simple or are unduly biased by the assumptions of the analyst. We outline a new method of quantitative inquiry-experimental wargaming-as a means to bridge the complexity-scarcity gap that offers human-generated, empirical data to inform a variety of model and simulation tasks (model building, calibration, testing, and validation). Below, we briefly describe SIGNAL-our first-of-a-kind experimental wargame designed to study strategic stability in conflict settings with nuclear weapons. We then highlight the potential utility of this data for modeling and simulation efforts in the future using this data.