Publications
Dynamic “what-if” modeling simulation
Dynamic modeling and simulation will be used to provide an understanding of the interactions between various complex systems. This dynamic model is based on an enterprise architecture framework whereby complex, dynamic and non-linear interactions, particularly those involving the human, can be understood and analyzed. Our modeling approach will include a synthesis of top-down and bottom-up strategies. The top-down portion will analyze high-level, mandated guidance and trace its tenants down to individually identifiable activities at the worker-level. We will then model these activities through the provision of a discrete event task model emphasizing research-based human performance and cognitive workload principles (bottom-up). These principles are based on accepted theories of the interaction between cognitive workload and human error. Synthesizing these two approaches will demonstrate both the impact and effect of high-level mandated activities and aid analysts in their understanding of how, why and when these impacts help or possibly hinder humans at the worker level. Benefits of using this model, namely the ability to predict “what if” scenarios in real time will be discussed. The model will be tested across multiple domains to demonstrate the potential modeling approach and its application in future hazard analyses.