Publications

Conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant

Helton, J.C.; Anderson, D.R.; Basabilvazo, G.; Jow, H.N.; Marietta, M.G.

The conceptual structure of the 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is described. This structure involves three basic entities (EN1, EN2, EN3): (i) EN1, a probabilistic characterization of the likelihood of different futures occurring at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 years; (ii) EN2, a procedure for estimating the radionuclide releases to the accessible environment associated with each of the possible futures that could occur at the WIPP site over the next 10,000 years; and (iii) EN3, a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainty in the parameters used in the definition of EN1 and EN2. In the formal development of the 1996 WIPP PA, ENI is characterized by a probability space (Sst, Gst, pst) for stochastic (i.e. aleatory) uncertainty; EN2 is characterized by a function f that corresponds to the models and associated computer programs used to estimate radionuclide releases: and EN3 is characterized by a probability space (Ssu, Gsu, psu) for subjective (i.e. epistemic) uncertainty. A high-level overview of the 1996 WIPP PA and references to additional sources of information are given in the context of (Sst, Gst, pst), f and (Ssu, Gsu, psu).