Publications

Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Pebay, Philippe P.; Red-Horse, John R.; Diegert, Kathleen V.; Zurn, Rena M.

Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.