Publications

Bayesian classification of partially observed outbreaks using time-series data

Safta, Cosmin S.; Ray, Jaideep R.

Results show that a time-series based classification may be possible. For the test cases considered, the correct model can be selected and the number of index case can be captured within {+-} {sigma} with 5-10 days of data. The low signal-to-noise ratio makes the classification difficult for small epidemics. The problem statement is: (1) Create Bayesian techniques to classify and characterize epidemics from a time-series of ICD-9 codes (will call this time-series a 'morbidity stream'); and (2) It is assumed the morbidity stream has already set off an alarm (through a Kalman filter anomaly detector) Starting with a set of putative diseases: Identify which disease or set of diseases 'fit the data best' and, Infer associated information about it, i.e. number of index cases, start time of the epidemic, spread rate, etc.