Publications

Assessment of HRA method predictions against operating crew performance: Part II: Overall simulator data, HRA method predictions, and intra-method comparisons

Liao, Huafei L.; Forester, John; Dang, Vinh N.; Bye, Andreas; Chang, Yung H.; Lois, Erasmia

This is the second in a series of three papers documenting two large-scale human reliability analysis (HRA) empirical studies – the International HRA Empirical Study and the US HRA Empirical Study. The goal of the two studies was to develop an empirically-based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of HRA methods by comparing HRA method predictions against actual operator performance in simulated accident scenarios on full-scale nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators. The first paper (Paper 1) provides background information for the studies, an overview of their design and methodology, and a description of the simulation scenarios and associated human failure events (HFEs) addressed in the HRA analyses. This paper first discusses the overall simulator data followed by quantitative comparisons of the HRA methods’ predictions with the simulator data. Then, it presents a summary of the results of and knowledge and insights gained from the comparisons between method predictions obtained with the same method.