Publications

Approaches for scalable modeling and emulation of cyber systems : LDRD final report

Mayo, Jackson M.; Minnich, Ronald G.; Rudish, Don W.; Armstrong, Robert C.

The goal of this research was to combine theoretical and computational approaches to better understand the potential emergent behaviors of large-scale cyber systems, such as networks of {approx} 10{sup 6} computers. The scale and sophistication of modern computer software, hardware, and deployed networked systems have significantly exceeded the computational research community's ability to understand, model, and predict current and future behaviors. This predictive understanding, however, is critical to the development of new approaches for proactively designing new systems or enhancing existing systems with robustness to current and future cyber threats, including distributed malware such as botnets. We have developed preliminary theoretical and modeling capabilities that can ultimately answer questions such as: How would we reboot the Internet if it were taken down? Can we change network protocols to make them more secure without disrupting existing Internet connectivity and traffic flow? We have begun to address these issues by developing new capabilities for understanding and modeling Internet systems at scale. Specifically, we have addressed the need for scalable network simulation by carrying out emulations of a network with {approx} 10{sup 6} virtualized operating system instances on a high-performance computing cluster - a 'virtual Internet'. We have also explored mappings between previously studied emergent behaviors of complex systems and their potential cyber counterparts. Our results provide foundational capabilities for further research toward understanding the effects of complexity in cyber systems, to allow anticipating and thwarting hackers.