Publications

An integrated approach to vulnerability assessment

Tidwell, Vincent C.; Otero, Consuelo J.

How might the quality of a city's delivered water be compromised through natural or malevolent causes? What are the consequences of a contamination event? What water utility assets are at greatest risk to compromise? Utility managers have been scrambling to find answers to these questions since the events of 9/11. However, even before this date utility mangers were concerned with the potential for system contamination through natural or accidental causes. Unfortunately, an integrated tool for assessing both the threat of attack/failure and the subsequent consequence is lacking. To help with this problem we combine Markov Latent Effects modeling for performing threat assessment calculations with the widely used pipe hydraulics/transport code, EPANET, for consequences analysis. Together information from these models defines the risk posed to the public due to natural or malevolent contamination of a water utility system. Here, this risk assessment framework is introduced and demonstrated within the context of vulnerability assessment for water distribution systems.