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Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis applications to fuel performance modeling

Top Fuel 2016: LWR Fuels with Enhanced Safety and Performance

Gamble, Kyle A.; Swiler, Laura P.

Best-estimate fuel performance codes such as BISON currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, utilize empirical and mechanistic lower-length-scale informed correlations to predict fuel behavior under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. Traditionally, best-estimate results are presented using the correlations with no quantification of the uncertainty in the output metrics of interest. However, there are associated uncertainties in the input parameters and correlations used to determine the behavior of the fuel and cladding under irradiation. Therefore, it is important to perform uncertainty quantification and include confidence bounds on the output metrics that take into account the uncertainties in the inputs. In addition, sensitivity analyses can be performed to determine which input parameters have the greatest influence on the outputs. In this paper we couple the BISON fuel performance code to the DAKOTA uncertainty analysis software to analyze a representative fuel performance problem. The case studied in this paper is based upon rod 1 from the IFA-432 integral experiment performed at the Halden Reactor in Norway. The rodlet is representative of a BWR fuel rod. The input parameters uncertainties are broken into three separate categories including boundary condition uncertainties (e.g., power, coolant flow rate), manufacturing uncertainties (e.g., pellet diameter, cladding thickness), and model uncertainties (e.g., fuel thermal conductivity, fuel swelling). Utilizing DAKOTA, a variety of statistical analysis techniques are applied to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the output metrics of interest. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of sampling methods, polynomial chaos expansions, surrogate models, and variance-based decomposition. The output metrics investigated in this study are the fuel centerline temperature, cladding surface temperature, fission gas released, and fuel rod diameter. The results highlight the importance of quantifying the uncertainty and sensitivity in fuel performance modeling predictions and the need for additional research into improving the material models that are currently available.

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TYPE Conference Poster YEAR 2016
ScopusOSTI

Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry LDRD 13-0144 Final Report

Mitchell, Scott A.; Ebeida, Mohamed S.; Romero, Vicente J.; Swiler, Laura P.; Rushdi, Ahmad A.; Abdelkader, Ahmad A.

This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2015
OSTIDOI

Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON

Swiler, Laura P.; Gamble, Kyle G.; Schmidt, Rodney C.; Williamson, Richard W.

This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2015
OSTIDOI

Spectral neighbor analysis method for automated generation of quantum-accurate interatomic potentials

Journal of Computational Physics

Thompson, Aidan P.; Swiler, Laura P.; Trott, C.R.; Foiles, Stephen M.; Tucker, G.J.

We present a new interatomic potential for solids and liquids called Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potential (SNAP). The SNAP potential has a very general form and uses machine-learning techniques to reproduce the energies, forces, and stress tensors of a large set of small configurations of atoms, which are obtained using high-accuracy quantum electronic structure (QM) calculations. The local environment of each atom is characterized by a set of bispectrum components of the local neighbor density projected onto a basis of hyperspherical harmonics in four dimensions. The bispectrum components are the same bond-orientational order parameters employed by the GAP potential [1]. The SNAP potential, unlike GAP, assumes a linear relationship between atom energy and bispectrum components. The linear SNAP coefficients are determined using weighted least-squares linear regression against the full QM training set. This allows the SNAP potential to be fit in a robust, automated manner to large QM data sets using many bispectrum components. The calculation of the bispectrum components and the SNAP potential are implemented in the LAMMPS parallel molecular dynamics code. We demonstrate that a previously unnoticed symmetry property can be exploited to reduce the computational cost of the force calculations by more than one order of magnitude. We present results for a SNAP potential for tantalum, showing that it accurately reproduces a range of commonly calculated properties of both the crystalline solid and the liquid phases. In addition, unlike simpler existing potentials, SNAP correctly predicts the energy barrier for screw dislocation migration in BCC tantalum.

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TYPE Journal Article YEAR 2015
ScopusOSTIDOI

Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

Ivey, Mark D.; Robinson, David G.; Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.; Peterson, Kara J.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G.; Swiler, Laura P.; Desilets, Darin M.; Reinert, Rhonda K.

This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

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TYPE SAND Report YEAR 2015
OSTIDOI
Results 176–200 of 335
Results 176–200 of 335