Publications

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An adage within the Additive Manufacturing (AM) community is that “complexity is free”. Complicated geometric features that normally drive manufacturing cost and limit design options are not typically problematic in AM. While geometric complexity is usually viewed from the perspective of part design, this advantage of AM also opens up new options in rapid, efficient material property evaluation and qualification. In the current work, an array of 100 miniature tensile bars are produced and tested for a comparable cost and in comparable time to a few conventional tensile bars. With this technique, it is possible to evaluate the stochastic nature of mechanical behavior. The current study focuses on stochastic yield strength, ultimate strength, and ductility as measured by strain at failure (elongation). However, this method can be used to capture the statistical nature of many mechanical properties including the full stress-strain constitutive response, elastic modulus, work hardening, and fracture toughness. Moreover, the technique could extend to strain-rate and temperature dependent behavior. As a proof of concept, the technique is demonstrated on a precipitation hardened stainless steel alloy, commonly known as 17-4PH, produced by two commercial AM vendors using a laser powder bed fusion process, also commonly known as selective laser melting. Using two different commercial powder bed platforms, the vendors produced material that exhibited slightly lower strength and markedly lower ductility compared to wrought sheet. Moreover, the properties were much less repeatable in the AM materials as analyzed in the context of a Weibull distribution, and the properties did not consistently meet minimum allowable requirements for the alloy as established by AMS. The diminished, stochastic properties were examined in the context of major contributing factors such as surface roughness and internal lack-of-fusion porosity. This high-throughput capability is expected to be useful for follow-on extensive parametric studies of factors that affect the statistical reliability of AM components.

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Improved validation for models of complex systems has been a primary focus over the past year for the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge. This document describes a set of research directions that are the result of distilling those ideas into three categories of research -- epistemic uncertainty, strong tests, and value of information. The content of this document can be used to transmit valuable information to future research activities, update the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge's roadmap, inform the upcoming FY18 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) call and research proposals, and facilitate collaborations between Sandia and external organizations. The recommended research directions can provide topics for collaborative research, development of proposals, workshops, and other opportunities.

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We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere region to avoid clustering. We decompose the domain into Voronoi cells around the function evaluations as seeds and choose the radius of the protection sphere depending on the local Lipschitz continuity. As sampling proceeds, regions uncovered with spheres will shrink, improving the estimation accuracy. After exhausting the function evaluation budget, we build a surrogate model using the function evaluations associated with the sample points and estimate the probability of failure by exhaustive sampling of that surrogate. In comparison to other similar methods, our algorithm has the advantages of decoupling the sampling step from the surrogate construction one, the ability to reach target POF values with fewer samples, and the capability of estimating the number and locations of disconnected failure regions, not just the POF value. We present various examples to demonstrate the efficiency of our novel approach.

Sandia's Dakota software (available at http://dakota.sandia.gov) supports science and engineering transformation through advanced exploration of simulations. Specifically, it manages and analyzes ensembles of simulations to provide broader and deeper perspective for analysts and decision makers. This enables them to enhance understanding of risk, improve products, and assess simulation credibility. This manual offers Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (LWRs) (CASL) partners a guide to conducting Dakota-based VUQ studies for CASL problems. It motivates various classes of Dakota methods and includes examples of their use on representative application problems. On reading, a CASL analyst should understand why and how to apply Dakota to a simulation problem.

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Parametric sensitivities of dynamic system responses are very useful in a variety of applications, including circuit optimization and uncertainty quantification. Sensitivity calculation methods fall into two related categories: direct and adjoint methods. Effective implementation of such methods in a production circuit simulator poses a number of technical challenges, including instrumentation of device models. This report documents several years of work developing and implementing di- rect and adjoint sensitivity methods in the Xyce circuit simulator. Much of this work sponsored by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program at Sandia National Labora- tories, under project LDRD 14-0788.

This report summarizes the methods and algorithms that were developed on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project entitled "Advanced Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Circuit Sim- ulation", which was project # 173331 and proposal # 2016-0845. As much of our work has been published in other reports and publications, this report gives an brief summary. Those who are in- terested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results and also contact the report authors for the status of follow-on projects.

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This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

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